Game, set and match: what now for post?
Written by: Previous staff on 2 July, 2009The collapse of the Postal Services Bill led the news last night and – along with Andy Murray – dominated much of the quality press this morning. The fallout from Lord Mandelson’s announcement has caused much head scratching with all the stakeholders as they figure out what lies ahead.
Politically, the Bill has been a hot potato from the start, with the Labour Party demonstrating an ability to tear itself apart over it, and the Conservatives, with their support for the Bill, adding further pressure to the Government. So what happens now?
It’s hard to see how the status quo is a long-term viable option. If the problems Royal Mail faced in December – when the Hooper Report was published – were dreadful enough to warrant the speedy drafting of a Bill and a fair amount of parliamentary time in the Lords since then, they are certainly no better now (especially considering the perilous state of the economy). Furthermore, the pensions issue is not going away and is only getting worse. Can anything be salvaged?
An awful lot of hard work has gone into getting the Bill this far. Part three of the Bill, which relates to the transfer of regulatory powers from Postcomm to Ofcom, could still be saved, in an attempt to progress the least controversial part of the Bill. However, there was only a fleeting mention to Royal Mail in Building Britain’s Future (also see below). This is the document that, with ‘a red rose on the front…could be a Labour manifesto’. This is the document that sets out a ‘bold, reformist agenda that will build a better future for our country’ (page eight). It is disappointing that, on this evidence, the Government do not consider a modernised postal sector part of this future.
Enough column inches have been spent on the politics of this Bill without my adding to it, but for what’s it worth, I think it is quite possible that if the Tories win the next General Election with a working majority then they will pick up the Bill as it stands, no doubt make a few tweaks, and seek to introduce it. This would then, not for the first time, put the Tories at loggerheads with the unions, especially if the Tories were to try to sell off more than 49% of Royal Mail.
Talking to companies, the one thing they say to me that they want more than anything else is market certainty. For the last few months, the topic has been about whether or not the Bill would go through before the summer recess (I’ve posted on this a few times myself here and here). Now it is known that the Bill is dead in the water, the conversation has rapidly turned to ‘what now?’
Back in February, when the Bill was introduced, despite the tricky parliamentary timetable, I thought that there was a greater chance of the Bill getting through Parliament than of a Brit winning Wimbledon. Now, as Murray mounts his challenge, that is certainly not the case. I’ll be speaking to members over the next few weeks to digest the events of the last 24 hours. Your comments are welcome too.
Tags: Andy Murray, Conservatives, Labour, Royal Mail